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Coming to ESPN, Saturday September 25 is UFC 119, a card topped by Frank Mir against Mirko Cro Cop headlining.

This question was posed on a forum regarding the outcome of the marquee match-up:

Considering Mir’s performance against Kongo, does anyone seriously see Cro Cop winning?

Here’s the detailed reply from old school Pride FC fanatic – wandshogun09, Cage Warriors and UKFF forum contributor, he puts forward some valid points in favour of Mirko, see if you agree:

I absolutely 100% see Cro Cop winning this. He’s a bad style match for Mir and I don’t care what anyone says he has a very good chance at beating Frank Mir.

Let’s look at the fight:

Striking

Cro Cop – Whatever anyone says about Mir’s striking against Big Nog, I’m not sold. Nog gave pretty much zero offense in that fight, I could have f***ing out-strike him that night. It was like Mir vs a punching bag, of course he’d look good.

I’ll give Mir his due for the Kongo knockdown. Kongo’s a good striker and rarely gets knocked down with strikes so fair play but can that one strike mean he’s a better striker than a K-1 veteran with tons of KO’s? I don’t think so.

KO Power

Cro Cop – Not even debatable IMO. Cro Cop has finished people with his hands and feet in K-1 and MMA. Mir’s got 2 TKO wins, one over Big Nog and one over Wes Sims. No comparison here.

Sure Cro Cop’s not finishing people like he was in his prime but it can’t seriously be argued that Mir has more knockout power than Cro Cop surely?

Threat with Submissions

Mir – Again not in any way up for debate. Mir’s record speaks for itself, he’s one of the best BJJ practitioners in the HW division and is perhaps the most aggressive BJJ fighter in MMA. If this fight hits the ground I’m under no illusions that Mir will likely finish Cro Cop at some point.

Cro Cop holds only 2 submission victories in his career. He has 2 other wins listed as submissions, both were against Josh Barnett. One was to strikes and the other a freak injury so I’m not gonna count them. Of the actual submission wins using submission moves I’ll admit they’re not that impressive, one was Kevin Randleman, the other Pat Barry. Not exactly Jacare and Maia but still it shows he has some ability there.

Speed

Tie – Not easy to call at this stage. Cro Cop’s obviously nowhere near the speed he was 6/7 years ago but he can still turn it on when he wants to. There were glimpses of his hand speed even in the Pat Barry fight towards the end. His striking combinations are still way ahead of Mir’s IMO.

Mir’s got decent speed himself for a HW and if we count speed in his grappling he’s obviously very slick there.

Wrestling

Obviously neither guy is known for their wrestling. Mir has never shown a great ability with takedowns. While Cro Cop’s never showed takedown ability either he has shown very good defensive wrestling over the years. His sprawl is one of the most well known in the sport, he’s notoriously hard to takedown. Cro Cop has the advantage here for me just because he’s got better defensive wrestling than Mir’s offensive wrestling.

Stamina

Cro Cop again.Again neither guy is known for being cardio machines but Mirko has gone the distance many times including in Pride with the 10 minute first round. Cro Cop’s also proved dangerous late in fights whereas Mir is always dangerous early but often fades as the fight wears on. Mir’s cardio has been shite his whole career and him f***ing around with his weight the last couple of years won’t have done him any favours.

Cro Cop has taken this fight on short notice though so maybe his stamina won’t be up to much either.

Jiu-Jitsu

Again Mir easy. There’s no comparison, he’s leagues ahead of Cro Cop on the ground.

Chin/Recovery

Cro Cop – Sure he’s been KO’d a few times but look at the shots that did it. That Gonzaga headkick would’ve KO’d a f***ing Hippo. Mir on the other hand gets dropped fairly regularly and has been stopped by Marcio Cruz with strikes who’s not exactly a striker.

Heart

Slightly Cro Cop – I can see where people could question both guys here.     Cro Cop did give up against Dos Santos but against Pat Barry he showed a lot of guts to fight through after a disaster of a first round. People can say whatever about Barry letting him off the hook and while I agree he should have went for the finish it still says something that Mirko hung in there and pulled out a win. He’s also survived a 20 minute ground and pound demolition from Fedor and never quit.

Mir has quit in nearly ALL of his losses in MMA. Go back and watch the fights he lost and pretty much each time you’ll see him get tagged drop to the ground, turtle up and hold on for dear life offering no resistance just praying the ref will step in and stop it. Saying that he did come back from that motorcycle crash so all credit to him for that, that shows heart in itself but in actual fights he seems to wilt under pressure as soon as things get rough.

I’ve set myself up for embarrassment there if Mir does pull off an early sub haven’t I?

Although I’ve favoured Cro Cop in almost all categories I’m not completely writing off Mir’s chances. He’s a dangerous fighter (especially early) and I’m not even totally discounting his chances of doing well on the feet. I’m just offering a counter to what seems to be the general feeling that Mir is gonna smoke Cro Cop. I just don’t see it.

I think people are overrating Mir way too much to be honest.

Prediction: Cro Cop by KO/TKO, Round 2.

There we have it, do you agree or disagree? Who are you betting on? Mir or Mirko?

I recommend Paddy Power to bet on UFC fights online, there’s also Bet365 and William Hill are worth a look.

Advertised fight card:

Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic vs. Frank Mir

Ryan Bader vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

Chris Lytle vs. Matt Serra

Evan Dunham vs. Sean Sherk

PRELIMS:

C.B. Dollaway vs. Joe Doerksen

Joey Beltran vs. Matt Mitrione

Pat Audinwood vs. Thiago Tavares

Steve Lopez vs. Waylon Lowe

T.J. Grant vs. Julio Paulino

Mark Hunt vs. Sean McCorkle

Watch UFC 119 exclusively on ESPN in the UK.

UFC & MMA blog by Duane Farr

duane@bluraymma.com